Oscar Forecast: 2013

Are you in a summer movie slump? I’ve seen many recent releases, and I’m still waiting for one movie I really want to write about. The Dark Knight Rises came closest. So instead of retiring this space until November, how about an early Oscars forecast?

"Will any of us be nominated?"

Moviemakers, take note: Your chances hinge on what the studio spends, how many parties you attend in the New Year, if the public feels you’re overdue. Sure, the actual movie matters. If Harvey Weinstein says it matters.

These are my Best Picture nominee predictions a healthy seven months early. However many there will be:

1. Lincoln

One of two highly anticipated films that couldn’t possibly—but will—live up to the excitement. Never underestimate a biopic starring Daniel Day-Lewis, helmed by Steven Spielberg. Sally Field, they really like you! And if War Horse could make the cut…

2. The Master

Believe. The. Hype. After Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood, you bet everyone in Hollywood is ready for his next chance at bat.

3. Django Unchained

You can’t hold this one back. Quentin Tarantino follows his Inglourious Basterds success and rewards us with more Christoph Waltz.

4. Les Misérables

Oscar’s given up on musicals, and this one’s a real downer. But it’s a downer that millions have seen and loved. Trust Tom Hooper’s pedigree and the inevitable Anne Hathaway push.

5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

The first three Lord of the Rings movies made it to the finals. Though I wonder if malaise has set in. Jackson and Tolkien have already journeyed far. Every year needs a blockbuster nominee, though, so I’m pulling for this over The Dark Knight Rises or The Hunger Games.

6. Moonrise Kingdom

The antidote to a season full of seriousness and bombast. Word-of-mouth may push this down the path of summer sleeper Midnight in Paris.

7. Cloud Atlas

Tom Hanks can’t do much wrong when Oscar’s watching. This Wachowski siblings mind-trip will be polarizing and might take the Terence Malick what-did-it-mean, why is it here? slot.

Ang, explain yourself.

What won’t be nominated:

• Hyde Park on Hudson. This year’s My Week with Marilyn. Acting nods all around, but the film's a trifle.
• Life of Pi. Ang Lee, why is there so much DayGlo CGI? It’s like The Lovely Bones all over again.
• Anna Karenina, On the Road. Literary adaptations are a tough awards sell.
• The Dark Knight Rises, The Hunger Games. We can’t nominate every movie that made 50 trillion dollars.
• To Rome with Love, To the Wonder. To the scrapheaps of history. I doubt we’ll repeat last year’s nominees verbatim.

And the winners...  maybe...

Best Picture: Lincoln

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master*

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Best Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Master

*He will drink your milkshake, Daniel Day-Lewis. He will drink it up.